A | "I think it would be best for President Trump to hold-back on an early announcement," said Earl Rasmussen, executive vice-president of Eurasia Group. "An early announcement may be a distraction from the very critical mid-term Congressional races and provide a mechanism to mobilize the Democratic base. Currently, it looks as if there will be a landslide of historic proportions resulting in a 'Red Tidal Wave' switching both the House and the Senate to a sizable Republican majority.",Politico and the Washington Post reported last week that Trump had met with top Republican donors, discussing the midterms and a potential Trump 2024 campaign. The Post quoted one Trump ally who, speaking on conditions of anonymity, put the odds at “70-30 he announces [his presidential bid] before the midterms.” Others did not rule out that he may announce it sooner than September.,"My own view is that President Trump would better campaign for the candidates he is supporting," explained Rasmussen. "This would give extra attention to the importance of local races; provide his support to the congressional candidates while at the same time getting visibility nationwide without the focus on himself. This could be very positive for the Republican Party and the Trump movement.",Meanwhile, 49% of Republicans place Trump at the top of their list of potential presidential candidates, with Florida Governor Rick DeSantis sitting on 25%, noted US political analyst Don DeBar.,Similarly, a poll by Morning Consult/Politico released on June 29 indicated that Trump has maintained his position among GOP voters, with the majority saying they'd vote for him in a 2024 Republican presidential primary. At the same time, candidates who have either been endorsed or supported by Trump were largely successful during the GOP primaries.,"Should the economy continue to tumble downward, and if the war in Ukraine continues to induce fear of a global conflagration, Republicans may find Trump invaluable, if not indispensable, in capturing both houses of Congresses and a number of state legislatures as well," said DeBar.,Poll: Biden's Economic Approval Rating at 30%, Lower Than Nadirs for Trump and ObamaYesterday, 16:59 GMT,Dems Seeking to Reinvigorate Bases,Democratic strategists are hoping a Trump pre-midterm announcement might help Democrats galvanize their base.,"The American electorate is highly polarized by party, and a combination of a five year wall-to-wall media campaign attacking Trump, along with constant legal and procedural attacks by Democrats, the 'intelligence community' and other organs of what has become known as 'the deep state' has placed him in the role of public enemy number one in the eyes of Democrats," explained DeBar.,This situation, along with Trump's popularity among Republicans and the loss of legitimacy of GOP establishment politicians, "has also created a deep cleavage within that party along the lines of pro-Trump and anti-Trump Republican officials," according to the political analyst.,"As for energizing Democrats to come out and vote against those associated with Trump, clearly this is a part of the Democrat's strategy - the January 6 show hearings are prima facie evidence of this," he said. "But that is a strategy that has failed a number of times, beginning with the 2016 election. And the fact that Biden's numbers are at the same level as Richard Nixon's on the day before he resigned in disgrace means, absent some miraculous turnaround in the economy and a return to normalcy in eastern Europe, Democrats will go down in flames in the fall no matter the type or intensity of mobilization of their voters by any negative campaign based upon hatred of Trump.",House Jan. 6 Committee Subpoenas Secret Service Over Alleged Missing Text Messages on Capitol Breach16 July, 12:44 GMT,House Select Committee on Jan 6 Attack,The Dems apparently hope that the House Select Committee investigating the January 6 protests may throw sand in the gears of Trump and the Make America Great Again movement.,According to Politico, the panel's "much-anticipated hearing" will happen on Thursday. It is expected to feature former Trump White House press aide Sarah Matthews and former Deputy National Security Adviser Matthew Pottinger. Moreover, committee members, aides and allies say that their investigations and hearings will continue past November, with the only "hard deadline" being January 3, 2023, "when Republicans likely take over the House," Politico reports.,"The committee is a circus!" said Rasmussen. "It is even more tragic than the [Special Counsel Robert] Mueller investigation. We have hundreds of people, many held without charges, being kept and tried as political prisoners. This is not about justice; it is criminal what is happening to patriotic people exercising their right to be heard with many being lured onto Capitol grounds. The hearings are a tragedy to our nation’s underlying values.",Rasmussen projects that the Dems "will try to drag the Committee hearings out as long as possible" even though they have not received the reaction that was sought for. The Democratic Party has a lot of failing policies and hearings apparently serve as a sort of distraction. The think tank executive vice president does not think that the Dem’s effort poses an obstacle for Trump, however, like the Mueller Investigation, it could provide additional challenges.,"Clearly, the January 6 Committee is attempting to do a (former President of Brazil) Lula on Trump - tie him up in criminal and other court proceedings to render him either legally or politically ineligible to run, in order to prevent him from winning another term," said DeBar.,However, the political analyst suggested that efforts to delegitimize Trump could prompt fierce resistance from his multi-million base. DeBar does not rule out that "if Trump is barred from running through a process that appears illegitimate in front of those voters, there is a real possibility that it could provoke an actual - and not play-pretend - insurrection, which could, in turn, lead to open civil war."。 最近买了一批中国篮球题材的书籍，在各个论坛和网络平台内容都愈发泥沙俱下的今天，从纸质载体里寻找好东西我觉得可能效率更高……今天主要分享一下《战神刘玉栋》里的内容。顺便，再给之前我看过的一些中国篮球方面的书打打分，做一些安利。先来看刘玉栋这本：这本书前四分之一还是蛮有价值的，讲了很多刘玉栋进八一之前的秘闻，非常好玩：1、刘玉栋父亲身高176，母亲身高168，在当时的福建算很高了，这基本也为刘玉栋的身体素质奠定了基因基础。2、刘玉栋小时候基本是一个乡间小野人，不爱读书，成绩非常不好，而刘玉栋对此的解释是因为饿——小时候刘玉栋饭量比普通小孩大得多，但当时家里条件一般，几个月才能正经吃一次肉，所以他去读书基本上听一两节课就饿了，然后刘玉栋就逃课，上山下河抓鱼抓螃蟹抓蛇回去吃。（嗯……我觉得就是借口而已……饿肯定饿，但不想读书肯定也是不想读书）3、因为成绩太差，刘玉栋理所当然的留级，但他身体越长越大，五年级时已经有一米八，老师完全拿他没办法，然后刘玉栋就干出了把书包刨坑埋地里（当时学校教室都是土夯墙，也不存在地板）再把课桌摞上去的事，把老师气的直哭。后来校长实在忍不了了，带着学费去刘玉栋家说你家这个我们教不了，天天和别人打架，学费退了，小孩也退学吧。你是不是在等反转？反转个屁，虽然刘玉栋的母亲还是希望刘玉栋能留在学校读书，但校长态度坚决，所以刘玉栋就此退学……4、关于打架，书里也有解释，大意是这里的刘姓据说是北方迁过来的，在当地属于小姓氏，所以刘家小朋友经常被欺负，主要是当地大姓王家的小孩以多欺少，而刘玉栋就经常出来解救家里的小亲戚，然后因为刘玉栋身高体壮又特别能打，所以被称为“黑猪”，反正后面就没人敢动他们了。嗯……我当时看到这特意查了一下，嗯，王哲林家是福州的，祖籍沙县，和刘玉栋不是一个地方（手动狗头……我真无聊）。
B | 5、刘玉栋大概五六岁的时候，有算命先生看过，说这小子以后肯定靠手吃饭。
C | 6、刘玉栋虽然退学了，但他们学校的老师没有忘记这头“黑猪”，1985年（我算了一下大概是刘玉栋被退学后的2-3年），学校老师把已经长到1米88的刘玉栋推荐给四处选材的福建队教练肖光弼，肖光弼说当时其实感觉刘玉栋并没有怎么样，有很多人天赋估计比他好，但骨龄测出来说刘玉栋能长到1米98左右，这才顶着压力和其他教练的不看好把刘玉栋带走（我觉得这也能从侧面说明刘玉栋的年龄极大概率没问题）7、刘玉栋到体工队食堂的第一顿饭就以饿死鬼之势给所有人留下了非常深刻的影响。8、刘玉栋口音重，直到今天依然把防守叫黄守（噗），这一点当时也被队里的老队员嘲笑，但刘玉栋不服，很快就在浴室里出手殴打了一个嘲讽他口音的2米大个，把对方打到地上起不来，刘玉栋一战成名。9、刚入队的刘玉栋毫无体育基础，到体工队第一次测试跑400米一通瞎冲，最后100米差点把自己累死直接栽倒在地（对于最后这个狗啃屎教练表示欣赏，小孩菜归菜，很拼嘛……）。
D | 易建联：跑400米就是很累啊！10、青年时代刘玉栋训练不刻苦，甚至跑回家，教练揪他回去他不想回，但想了想只有在体工队才能吃饱，就回去了。11、后来因为刘玉栋基础不好，训练又偷懒，教练气疯了想让他滚蛋，刘玉栋痛定思痛决定认错留下，并在给妈妈的信里详细写了原因： “我在这里每天都能吃的饱饱的”（不行了忍不住了我要笑一会，刘玉栋你是有多饿啊……）12、刘玉栋大概是在某一年突然开窍的，而他当时在福建省内除了厉害以外最大的名声就是“不能对他来阴的”，因为刘玉栋真的会直接动手干你。
E | 教练总结，刘玉栋最与众不同的特点就是“好斗，顽强”13、打了两年球，刘玉栋就被福建队升上一队——打中锋，当时身高1.93-1.95米。14、1989年，福建男篮因全运会成绩不好解散（当时各个体委甩包袱，足篮球这总不能在奥运夺金的集体项目都是最早被扔出去的，这个好像在孙军的自传里也有提到），刘玉栋那会差点退役去机关，但肖光弼教练爱才，否决了刘玉栋的退役申请，把他送到南京部队，之后刘玉栋被大领导看上，送到八一。
F | 15、在八一刘玉栋依然训练不好，比赛乱打，思乡，甚至和领导吵架说你们把我开除吧我要回家，但1993年刘玉栋随八一队在七运会夺冠，随后可能是因为荣誉的感召，23岁的刘玉栋突然蜕变，成为了超级训练狂人。……好了，至此，这本书写的比较好比较有意思的部分就算结束了后面的部分，不知道是作者为了秀才情还是当时出书的习惯，人物传记他们不按时间顺序写，而是用几个概念来作为章节主题，结果就是导致整本书的时间线从此开始来回跳，一会90年代，一会00年代，一会是某年全运会，一会是CBA，一会国际比赛，一会再穿插几段胡卫东孙军，甚至还有一些球迷团体的内容……其实人物传记不按时间线写也不算罕见，比如巩晓彬的自传也是类似风格，但读巩晓彬传记我就没有类似刘玉栋这本书这种混乱感。要知道我从2019年开始写中国篮球，也写过很多CBA和中国篮球的考古，对中国篮球的历史也算有一些了解，可即便如此，我读这本书后面的部分依然感觉有点费劲。书后面的内容其实也还算有料（比如李楠是更衣室大佬，阿的江当教练第一场紧张写错首发名单忘记刘玉栋结果上场吃鸡饭，姚明赛后言论激怒八一，刘玉栋叫朱芳雨“他是我的宠物”等等），内容环境大家相对比较熟悉，我就不一一列举了，感兴趣大家可以买来看看。朱芳雨后来在国家队也照葫芦画瓢的照顾西热力江，西热又有样学样把玩室友郭艾伦……也算国家队的一种传承最后，如果要打分的话，这本书我大概勉强能给到一个“人上人”。我觉得这本书反正读了不亏，但中间有很多篇幅我觉得比较浪费，而且有很多重复的东西不断出现（比如“刘姓在当地是个小姓氏”我就在开头12页的不同段落里见了两次），后面关于比赛的内容相对也比较大路货，很多准战报，体验相对一般。买不买大家自己拿捏吧……剩下的篇幅，我大概聊一下我这些年看的中国篮球方面的书和刘玉栋这本一起买的是这本《走自己的路——杨伯镛与中国篮球》这本书我相信资料内容是牛逼的，但是历史过于久远，门槛有点高，看起来也缺少代入感——当然，这也是因为中国篮球发展历程，以及职业篮球和更早篮球之间缺少传媒层面的传承，导致中国篮球考古，以及篮球名人堂介绍前辈时几乎无法避免有很强割裂感导致的。
G | 我估计这本书最大的价值在于对早年中国篮球历史细节的记录，比如在无法参加世界大赛期间和欧洲球队对抗的记录，以及对老一辈篮球人的思路想法的记录。综合给到人上人吧。然后是这本：《爱之上》这本是以改开前一代篮球人生活经历为背景的文学作品，与你认识的任何一位名宿无关，也不存在什么有意思的爆料。但这本书的作者是冯骥才，当代著名文学家和画家，而且冯老早年间可是天津篮球队的，所以这部小说虽然虚构，但内容非常扎实，有很多那个时代运动员教练员生活非亲历不可知的细节，对满足我的好奇心非常有帮助。
H | 不要担心这是名著级的大部头，很薄的一本，而且冯老文笔爽利温暖，读起来一点不费劲，故事走向也很有意思，我当初是在飞机上一个多小时很快就看完了。综合给到一个夯。
I | 然后是这本：《最新篮球基本训练图解》（1951年出版）非常非常老的一本小册子，其实是一本准教辅，介绍基础篮球动作的，竖式排版，看起来很不习惯。
J | 亮点是书屁股上的定价（很适合发朋友圈）：这本书其实收藏价值高于阅读价值，不过如果你对上古美国篮球有一定了解的话，这本书你读起来会有惊喜，因为虽然它距今已经有70多年，但它记录了当时很多时髦篮球动作的来源，你可以在里面找到很多NBA精英级考古专家才会熟知的名字（以及他们当时在中国的翻译），很好玩。综合给到顶级，不过不适合小白（我都没读完说实话）。接着是两本自传：《篮筐记忆》《巩晓彬——一个关于男人女人和篮球的故事》如果你喜欢中国篮球，这两本基本可以无脑冲，虽然这两本书的正版在二手书市场上都不便宜，但我觉得都物有所值。其中孙军这本我觉得相对来说写的更好，综合可以给到夯中夯，一来料很多也不回避矛盾（尤其是当年孙军差点被国家队开除的事），可以侧面看到很多现在还活跃得篮球人的故事，二来文笔好，以孙军自诉的形式展开，读起来很顺，三来书的质量着实不错……相对来说，巩晓彬这本就差一点，料也不少（除了该有篮球相关部分，还正面聊了很多和李昕指导的恋爱史——我知道你们关心这段八卦），可以给到顶级。不过，巩晓彬这本书装帧质量比较差，随便翻了一下中间就开胶掉页，保存有一定麻烦，而且我听一些人说，这本书被改的好像相对不是那么客观……接着是《华夏篮球》和《篮球的秘密》《华夏篮球》这本我买了，看的比较早，说实话已经不记得写的具体内容，大概是中国篮球职业化前考古的重要资料（不过这本书的内容好像也被一些老前辈吐槽过有事实性错误）综合可以给到顶级。另一本《篮球的秘密》感觉不咋样，我是十年前借阅别人的看的，自己没有买，印象中书里的一些思想非常陈旧，内容也有点水，属于人上人吧。不过值得一提的是，《篮球的秘密》作者赵瑜是超级大牛，他的《马家军调查》如果是原版那真的是夯中夯中夯中夯中夯，强烈建议买来读一读。
K | ……最后，我最近还买了这几本书（还没到货）：作者是青岛体育记者杜金城老师（微博@独自不同），我猜大概有很多第一手的东西吧，希望不要让我失望。然后是《郅敬》作者是以前《篮球先锋报》的记者李阳，我以前的室友老潘告诉我说，大郅回来后李阳独家跟了大郅两年，所以冲这本书不会错，于是我就冲了。嗯，反正最后我吃完会给你们聊聊味道的，做各位的眼替。哦对了，还有最后一本：世预赛要是不出线的话，我就找个地方烧了你…OK就这样，等我看完，回头再聊~欢迎大家来我们的微信公众号“后体工队长”看看，有更多NBA、CBA相关考古、评论和人物内容>>（文/Josh Nihil）。
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